The bond market may be seeing the death knell of a popular bet that inflation will stay low.
The 30-year Treasury bond’s yield rose above a key level that this week, breaking out of what’s know as its 200-day moving average. That may signal traders are done betting the collapse of oil prices will lead to deflation after pushing the longest-maturity debt to record lows in January.
“People aren’t concerned about deflation anymore,” said Justin Lederer, interest-rate strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald LP in New York. “That trade is, at least for now, in the background.”
Bond yields rose Monday above the 200-day moving average of 2.849 percent, a crucial level for chart-watchers who look at technical indicators as a guide to future price moves. After breaking the level, the yield could rise as high as 3 percent, according to Tyler Tucci, a strategist with RBS Securities in Stamford, Connecticut. Bonds yielded 2.91 percent at 12:48 p.m. New York time.